Int J Performability Eng ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 299-306.doi: 10.23940/ijpe.21.03.p5.299306

• Original article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

LSTM and RNN to Predict COVID Cases: Lethality’s and Tests in GCC Nations and India

Razia Sulthana A.a,*(),  Arokiaraj Jovithb, and  Jaithunbi A. K.c   

  1. a Department of Computer Science, Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani (Dubai Campus), Dubai, 345055, UAE
    b Department of Information Technology, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur, 603203, India
    c Department of Computer Science and Engineering, RMD Engineering College, Kavaraipettai, 601206, India
  • Contact: Sulthana A. Razia


The spread of COVID across world countries is better handled by applying learning algorithms. Machine learning and deep learning algorithms can be applied to analyze the effects of COVID in multidimensional ways. This paper brings a detailed study of the COVID cases, deaths and tests across five of the GCC countries and India. The proposed method analyzes the COVID count against the population density of each of the countries. An analysis of the raw count would only give a false impression, whereas a population-based comparison gives the exact measure of the effect of COVID. As India is a densely populated country, the number of precautionary steps taken by the country against the population count needs to be measured for accurate prediction. Recurrent Neural Network and Long Short-term memory are used to predict the future cases, deaths and tests of India. A time span of 20 days is used in the prediction. In the sense that ith day to (i+20)th day values are taken to predict the (i+21)thday values. The accuracy of the LSTM model designed with multiple hidden layers is notable and the prediction error is minimal.

Key words: long short-term memory, recurrent neural network, COVID, Gulf corporation, India