Int J Performability Eng ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 56-65.doi: 10.23940/ijpe.19.01.p6.5666

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Dynamic Time Series Reliability Analysis for Long-Life Mechanic Parts with Stress-Strength Correlated Interference Model

Bin Suo()   

  1. Institute of Electronic Engineering,China Academy of Engineering Physics,Mianyang, 621900, China
  • Revised on ; Accepted on
  • Contact: Suo Bin
  • About author:<b>Bin Suo</b> received his Ph.D. from China Academy of Engineering Physicsin 2012. He is an associate research fellow in the Institute of ElectronicEngineering at China Academy of EngineeringPhysics. His research interests are uncertain informationprocessing and system reliabilityanalysis and evaluation.


Based on data of the equivalent stress from the ANSYS for a loaded hollow shaft, the correlation between a mechanical part’s elastic modulus and the corresponding Von Mises stress is statistically verified in this paper. Using the Copula correlation theory, a static reliability model involving stress-strength interference is built. According to the performance degradation data of mechanical parts with long-life and high-reliability, deterministic time series models are used to extract the characteristic information of the distribution of degradation variables, and then a method is proposed for estimating the characteristic parameters of degradation strength and integrated stress. Two-stage maximum likelihood estimation is applied to determine the scalar degree of correlation between both, and then a reliability assessment of long-life mechanical parts is completed.

Key words: stress-strength interference model, time series, correlation, copula, reliability, statistical analysis