Int J Performability Eng ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 10-19.doi: 10.23940/ijpe.23.01.p2.1019

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Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach to a Dynamic Safety Evaluation: Skikda’s Coastal City Liquefied Gas Plant

Abderraouf Bouafiaa,b,*, Mohammed Bougofac, Mohamed Salah Medjrama, and Ahmed Mebarkib   

  1. aThe Université of 20 août 1955, Skikda, Laboratory Génie Chimique et Environnement de Skikda, 26 Road El Hadaiek, Skikda, 21000, Algeria;
    bUniversity Gustave Eiffel, Laboratory Multi Scale Modeling and Simulation (UMR 8208 CNRS/UPEC/U.Eiffel), 5 Bd Descartes, Marne-La-Vallee, 77454, France;
    cUniversity of Constantine 1, Laboratory Ingénierie de Transport et Environnement, 325 Road Ain El Bey, Constantine, 25017, Algeria
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Abstract: Concerns about the risk of catastrophic accidents have prompted governments and industries to develop new methods for identifying and evaluating potential hazards. The most promising strategy involves assembling a collection of quantitative risk assessment techniques (QRA). The use of (QRA) is rapidly spreading across industries, having been adapted primarily from probabilistic risk assessment approaches developed in other industries. The Netherlands Organization (TNO) developed the (QRA) for the external safety of industrial plants against fire and explosion hazards. Escalation of primary events that trigger accidental scenarios may have a significant impact on industrial risk, increasing the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and resulting in extremely severe damages involving multiple plant units simultaneously. The present study applied a methodology developed for quantifying the risk of liquefied natural gas (LNG) containment loss. To begin, an industrial facility is separated into modules based on its structural characteristics. Following that, the relevant fire and explosion scenarios are identified, along with their frequency of occurrence. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were used to determine the probability of the final scenario occurring. SAFETI software was used to model and calculate risks. Finally, the individual risks (thermal and overpressure exceedance curves) are calculated, as well as the societal risk (FN curve). The findings demonstrate the critical importance of quantitative risk assessment in identifying critical equipment and addressing prevention and protection measures.

Key words: quantitative risk assessment, LNG Skikda, individual and societal risk, fire and explosion, SAFETI software