Abstract:

Reliability analysis based on equipment's performance degradation characteristics is one of the important research area in reliability analysis. Many a times, research is carried on the basis of multi-sample analysis, but application is limited to a single equipment reliability prediction. Therefore, the method of reliability prediction based on state space model is proposed for small sample analysis. First, signals about machine working conditions are determined based on-line monitoring technology. Secondly, wavelet packet energy is applied on characteristic extraction for the monitored signals. Frequency band energy is determined to be as characteristic parameter. Then, the degradation characteristics of signal to noise ratio is improved by moving average filtering processing. In the end, state space model was established to predict degradation characteristics of probability density distribution, and the degree of reliability is determined. Rolling element bearing reliability analysis is used an example to demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of this method.