Abstract:

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was initially adopted and implemented by NASA in the operational phase of human space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human and robotic space explorations as well as the key operational space missions. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation human space systems as well as high priority robotic/operational missions. This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive PRA during the design phase of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-Series (GOES-R). This PRA is also unique in that it includes the first quantitative ground system analysis conducted at NASA. The design and operational changes resulting from the GOES-R PRA are discussed in detail in this paper.