A Dynamic Model for Winning Probability Estimation in a Long-Lasting Campaign

Gao Kaiye,Yan Xiangbin,Peng Rui,Qiu Hui,Wu Langtao

Table 3 Winning probabilities for Case 1 on Kth day

Day A wins B wins Draw Uncertain 1 0.09 0.09 0.02 0.8 2 0.097 0.097 0.026 0.58 3 0.0805 0.0805 0.024 0.395 4 0.0593 0.0593 0.019 0.2575 5 0.0406 0.0406 0.0138 0.1625 6 0.0266 0.0266 0.0094 0.1 7 0.0168 0.0168 0.0061 0.0603 8 0.0103 0.0103 0.0039 0.0358 9 0.0062 0.0062 0.0024 0.0209 10 0.0037 0.0037 0.0014 0.0121 11 0.0022 0.0022 0.0009 0.0069 12 0.0012 0.0012 0.0005 0.0039 13 0.0007 0.0007 0.0003 0.0022 14 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0012 15 0.0002 0.0002 0.0952 0.0007 16 0.00001 0.00001 0.000005 0.0004 17 0.000007 0.000007 0.000003 0.0002 18 0.000004 0.000004 0.000002 0.0001 19 0.000002 0.000002 0.000001 0.00006