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Detailed review of: 

Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities





John Wiley & Sons,Inc., New Jersey 




Terje Aven 




Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities


Year of Publication














Krishna B. Misra




Review published in IJPE, Vol. 5, No. 1, January 2009, p. 99.

The book consists of 12 chapters as follows:

Part I

Theory and Methods

  1 Page

Chapter 1
What is risk analysis?
  16 Pages
Chapter 2
What is risk?           
  12 Pages
Chapter 3
The risk analysis process: planning                                      
  10 Pages 
Chapter 4
The risk analysis process: risk assessment
  12 Pages
Chapter 5
The risk analysis process: risk treatment              
  6 Pages     
Chapter 6
The risk analysis methods 
  28 Pages

Part II

Examples of Applications

  1 Page

Chapter 7
Safety measures for a road tunnel
  12 Pages
Chapter 8
Risk analysis process for an offshore installation  
  8 Pages
Chapter 9
Production assurance
  6 Pages
Chapter 10
The risk analysis process for a cash depot               
  12 Pages 
Chapter 11
The risk analysis process for municipalities  
  8 Pages

Chapter 12

The risk analysis process for the entire enterprise

  12 Pages

Chapter 13


  14 Pages


A: Probability calculus and statistics
B: Introduction to reliability analysis
C: Approach for selecting risk analysis methods
D: Terminology
  6 Pages
  4 Pages
  6 Pages
  4 pages



  5 Pages

  2 Pages   


This book comes from an author who has a rich experience of teaching and offering consultancy in the area of risk analysis and management and has written some books in this area. His earlier book published in 2003 with Wiley was on Foundations of Risk Analysis – A Knowledge and Decision Oriented Perspective.

Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities - ISBN 9780470517369
. He also coauthored a book with Vinnem Jan Erik, entitled, Risk Management, with Applications from the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry, and was published by Springer, U.K. in 2007. The review of this book was published in IJPE on page 299 in Vol. 4, no. 3 in July 2008.

    The book starts with the definition of risk and risk analysis with the help of some examples. The risk analysis (qualitative and quantitative) constitutes identifying hazards, threats and opportunities, their causes and consequences leading to assessment of risk. The process involves planning, assessment and its treatment. Methods used in risk analysis , such as FMEA, HAZOP, SWIFT, FTA, ET, Bayesian nets and Monte Carlo simulation are also discussed. Thus in part 1, tools required for risk analysis are discussed.

     In Part 2 of the book, the author discusses applications of the tools in carrying out the analysis in case of road tunnel, off-shore installations product assurance cash depot municipalities (for emergency-preparedness point of view) and finally for an entire enterprise covering such factors as price, operational, health environment and safety  and reputation. Finally, in a chapter on discussion, the author explains how risk analysis can be used as a decision support tool and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses. In the opinion of the reviewer, the author has been successful in presenting the subject of risk analysis effectively.  The reviewer would like to recommend this book to all those, who would like to know about risk analysis and how it can be performed in practical situations.

Krishna B. Misra

Review published in the International Journal of Performability Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 1, January  2009 , p.99.


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