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A Direct Method for Determining Design and Support Parameters to Meet an Availability Requirement

Volume 10, Number 2, March 2014 - Paper 09 - pp. 211-225


Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, U.S.A.

(Received on February 27, 2013, revised on November 21, and 26, 2013)


Discrete event simulation is usually a preferred approach to model and predict the life-cycle characteristics (cost and availability) of large populations of complex real systems managed over long periods of time with significant uncertainties. However, while using discrete event simulation to predict the availability of a system or a population of systems based on known or predicted system design and support parameters is relatively straightforward; determining the design and support parameters that result in a desired availability is generally performed using search-based methods that can become impractical for designing systems with more than a few variables and when significant uncertainties are present. This paper presents a direct method that is not search based and uses an availability requirement to predict the required logistics, design and operation parameters using discrete event simulation in a time forward direction.  This paper also addresses managing availability requirements for systems that include prognostics and health management (PHM) strategies. PHM methods are incorporated into systems to avoid unanticipated failures that can potentially impact system safety and operation, result in additional life-cycle cost, and/or adversely affect the system availability.


References: 29

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