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Control Theory Based Uncertainty Model in Reliability ApplicationsVolume 10, Number 5, July 2014, Paper 4, pp 477-486VICTOR G. KRYMSKYDepartment of Information – Control Systems Ufa State University of Economics and Service, 145 Chernyshevsky Str.,Ufa, 450078, RUSSIA(Received on November 12, 2013, revised on Feb. 02 and April 14, 2014) Abstract:In this paper we propose a novel approach to deriving uncertainty model in reliability applications. It is based on a state space representation of the system life cycle which is similar to techniques widely used in the control theory (CT). Such a model in turn allows applying CT methods (e.g., optimal control algorithms) to assess the reliability in case of high level of uncertainty. In particular, a CT-based model is effective even if the system performances cannot be described in terms of single-valued statistical characteristics. We demonstrate that in such a situation a CT-based model combined with the so-called ‘interval-valued probabilities’ becomes a very promising tool for reliability computations.
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