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Diagnosis Decision-Making using Threshold Interpretation Rule and Expected Monetary Value

Volume 8, Number 1 , January 2012 - Paper 8 - pp. 101-110

MOHD RADZIAN ABDUL RAHMAN1, M. ITOH2, and T. INAGAKI2

1 University of Tsukuba, JAPAN and TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., MALAYSIA
2 University of Tsukuba, JAPAN

(Received on September 28, 2010, revised on August 02, 2011)

Abstract:

Lack of information in dissolved gas analysis (DGA) pieces of evidence necessitates Dempster-Shafer theoretic approach for combining these pieces of evidence. The threshold ground probability assignment (THG) that firmly judge major fault condition is determined from DGA dataset prior to year 2009. A threshold interpretation rule is proposed. Four distinct scenarios resulted from the application of the interpretation rule inclusive of a scenario, which the system operator is uncertain about the condition of a power transformer. DGA dataset of all power transformers that experienced electrical and thermal failures in year 2009 is collected to validate the threshold interpretation rule. Six decision policies are introduced to map power transformer condition propositions to decision spaces for decision-making under uncertainties. Expected monetary value is utilized to assess each decision policy and to select the optimal decision policy.

 

References: 16

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