%A Bin Suo %T Dynamic Time Series Reliability Analysis for Long-Life Mechanic Parts with Stress-Strength Correlated Interference Model %0 Journal Article %D 2019 %J Int J Performability Eng %R 10.23940/ijpe.19.01.p6.5666 %P 56-65 %V 15 %N 1 %U {https://www.ijpe-online.com/CN/abstract/article_3982.shtml} %8 2019-01-01 %X

Based on data of the equivalent stress from the ANSYS for a loaded hollow shaft, the correlation between a mechanical part’s elastic modulus and the corresponding Von Mises stress is statistically verified in this paper. Using the Copula correlation theory, a static reliability model involving stress-strength interference is built. According to the performance degradation data of mechanical parts with long-life and high-reliability, deterministic time series models are used to extract the characteristic information of the distribution of degradation variables, and then a method is proposed for estimating the characteristic parameters of degradation strength and integrated stress. Two-stage maximum likelihood estimation is applied to determine the scalar degree of correlation between both, and then a reliability assessment of long-life mechanical parts is completed.