Int J Performability Eng ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (7): 1130-1138.doi: 10.23940/ijpe.20.07.p15.11301138

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Application of Panel Data Model to Economic Effects of High-Speed Railway

Tiantian Wanga, Baiji Lia, and Gongpeng Zhangb,*   

  1. aSchool of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China;
    bCollaborative Innovation Center of eTourism, Beijing Union University, Beijing, 100101, China
  • Submitted on ; Revised on ; Accepted on
  • Contact: * E-mail address: gongpeng@buu.edu.cn
  • About author:Tiantian Wang is a PhD student from the School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing. Her research interests include management science and engineering, and industrial economic development. E-mail: tbp1600501006@student.cumtb.edu.cn. Baiji Li is Professor and Doctoral Tutor of the School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing. His research interests include management science and engineering, financial engineering and risk management, and energy economic management. E-mail: 13911056088@163.com. Gongpeng Zhang is an Associate Professor of Tourism College of Beijing Union University. His research interests include management science and engineering, and smart tourism. E-mail: gongpeng@buu.edu.cn

Abstract: By taking Beijing-Shijiazhuang high-speed railway (HSR) as the research object, this thesis selects the panel data from 2000 to 2015 of 23 cities, and uses the synthetic control method to construct the “counterfactual” state to analyse the economic impact of the Beijing-Shijiazhuang HSR on Baoding and Shijiazhuang along the line. The research shows that: a) The synthetic control method can effectively match the economic impact of Beijing-Shijiazhuang HSR on Baoding and Shijiazhuang. b) The investment pulling effect of Beijing-Shijiazhuang HSR on Baoding is greater than the industrial driving effect, while the situation in Shijiazhuang City is just the opposite. c) For the influence mechanism, it is found that Beijing-Shijiazhuang HSR has an economic overflow effect on large cities and a siphon effect on small and medium-sized cities. It has a complementary effect on the small and medium-sized cities in the primary and secondary industries, and agglomeration on large cities in the tertiary industry.

Key words: high-speed railway, economic effects, panel data, synthetic control method