Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model based on Local Comparison and Mean Circular Tube

doi:10.23940/ijpe.19.06.p18.16721683

Int J Performability Eng ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 1672-1683.doi: 10.23940/ijpe.19.06.p18.16721683

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Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model based on Local Comparison and Mean Circular Tube

Xuezong Bai, Zongwen An^*, Yunfeng Hou, and Jianxiong Gao

School of Mechanical and Electronical Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050, China

Submitted on ;
Contact: * E-mail address: anzongwen@163.com
About author:Xuezong Bai is a Ph.D. student in the School of Mechatronics Engineering at Lanzhou University of Technology, China. His research interests include the mechanical prognostic and health management (PHM) of mechanical equipment and components.Zongwen An is a professor at Lanzhou University of Technology. He received his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. He is a senior member of the Chinese Mechanical Engineering Society. His research interests include structural reliability and mechanical design theory.Yunfeng Hou is a professor at Lanzhou University of Technology. He received his Ph.D. from Lanzhou University of Technology. His research interests include special equipment and its control, modern design methods and theory, and superfine grinding technology.Jianxiong Gao is a Ph.D. student in the School of Mechatronics Engineering at Lanzhou University of Technology. His research interests include mechanical strength theory and structural reliability.
Supported by:
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51665029).

Abstract

Abstract: It is significant to forecast the short-term wind speed for the safety of wind turbine blades and the optimization of power grid dispatching. Firstly, the local comparison method is established to forecast the mean wind speed. Secondly, the universal generating function (UGF) is used to express the wind speed as a multi-state random variable, state probability allocation and the state probability matrix are used to obtain the risk state probability, and equal dimension filling is used to update the information. Then, the maximum wind speed is calculated based on the mean wind speed and risk state probability. Thirdly, local comparison is used for error forecasting, and the forecasting errors are used to correct the forecasting wind speeds. Finally, the mean circular tube is constructed, and the mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, risk state probability, and average relative error are displayed in the combined mean circular tube together.

Key words: short-term wind speed forecasting, local comparison, mean circular tube, state probability allocation, equal dimension filling, error forecasting

Xuezong Bai, Zongwen An, Yunfeng Hou, and Jianxiong Gao. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model based on Local Comparison and Mean Circular Tube [J]. Int J Performability Eng, 2019, 15(6): 1672-1683.

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Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model based on Local Comparison and Mean Circular Tube

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