Abstract: With the expansion of college enrollment in recent years, the quality of students' learning is beginning to decline. At present, education quality governance has become the internal demand of the reform and development of higher education. Learning performance prediction is an important means to effectively resolve the academic crisis and improve the overall education quality. In this study, firstly, the current status and problems about learning performance prediction were analyzed from the perspective of basic data, evaluation indicators, and prediction methods. Secondly, driven by ten items of basic learning situation data, a learning performance prediction model based on the RBF neural network was established, which included three layers in network topology the input layer, hidden layer, and output layer. The activation functions of the hidden layer and output layer were a Gauss radial basis function and linear function, respectively. The modeling process included three steps forward propagation computing prediction loss, error backward propagation adjusting network parameters, and network optimization determining model hyperparameters. The obtained results showed that the trained model had small relative root mean square error values for both the training data and testing data. When comparing the original observation values and model predicted values, it was observed that most of the sample points were evenly distributed on both sides of the diagonal line of the contrast graph, which indicates that the RBF neural network model employed in this study is promising in learning performance prediction. It is of good reference significance for promoting more accurate and efficient learning performance prediction and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of education quality governance.

Key words: learning performance prediction, RBF neural network, education quality governance