Abstract:

An allied (Blue) maritime domain contains a number w (w>>1) of non-hostile neutral W (White) vessels. A hostile R (Red) vessel enters the domain. R is traveling through the domain towards a target. Overhead allied (Blue) sensors: manned aircraft, helicopters, and/or unmanned aerial sensor vehicles (UAVs), patrol the domain and classify (perhaps incorrectly) detected vessels as R or W. The misclassification of a W as an R is a false positive. An overhead sensor follows (or tracks) any vessel classified as R until it is relieved by another platform, e.g. a destroyer pair (DD). The overhead sensor is unable to detect and classify additional vessels while it is following a suspicious vessel. This may well be a somewhat pessimistic assumption. Models are formulated and studied to evaluate the probability that R is successfully neutralized before reaching its destination. The model results quantify the effect of the resources and time needed to prosecute misclassified neutral vessels (false positives) on the probability of successfully neutralizing R. The probability of neutralizing R depends on the area of the domain being patrolled, the number of sensor platforms, the sensor platform velocity, the time to classify a vessel of interest, the ability to correctly classify vessels of interest, the time until a sensor platform following a suspicious vessel is relieved, and the false positive rate. The results indicate that the probability of neutralizing an R vessel is very sensitive to the false positive rate. Technologies, processes, and procedures that can decrease the false positive rate will increase the effectiveness of the Maritime Intercept Operation (MIO). The same is true also of false negatives: classifying the R as a W. Note that we do not investigate the effect of tagging or labeling a detected entity; this has a down side if tagging is too error-prone. This important and interesting investigation is postponed.
Received on September 27, 2007, revision available on November 25, 2008
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