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Dynamic Time Series Reliability Analysis for Long-Life Mechanic Parts with Stress-Strength Correlated Interference Model

Volume 15, Number 1, January 2019, pp. 56-66
DOI: 10.23940/ijpe.19.01.p6.5666

Bin Suo

Institute of Electronic Engineering, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang, 621900, China

(Submitted on October 5, 2018; Revised on November 21, 2018; Accepted on December 16, 2018)


Based on data of the equivalent stress from the ANSYS for a loaded hollow shaft, the correlation between a mechanical part’s elastic modulus and the corresponding Von Mises stress is statistically verified in this paper. Using the Copula correlation theory, a static reliability model involving stress-strength interference is built. According to the performance degradation data of mechanical parts with long-life and high-reliability, deterministic time series models are used to extract the characteristic information of the distribution of degradation variables, and then a method is proposed for estimating the characteristic parameters of degradation strength and integrated stress. Two-stage maximum likelihood estimation is applied to determine the scalar degree of correlation between both, and then a reliability assessment of long-life mechanical parts is completed.


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